Agricultural land market. The current state of the Russian land market

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07/04/2013 Management 5452

Ksenia Tretyakova

General Director of Value ARKA consulting

The land market, as a rule, very well reflects the general situation in the industry for which it is intended. Today, the agricultural land market is a buyer's market. In general, the supply volume is large and a downward trend in prices is expected.

Supply greatly exceeds demand. Despite this, many sellers rely on the amount they have invested in the land or property complex. Considering that plots were often purchased in the pre-crisis wave, it is now difficult to restructure psychologically; sales at current prices will mean fixing losses. Those who do not have a financial cushion to expect price increases have to play by market rules, significantly reduce the price, helping to ensure the buyer acceptable performance for the project. In this regard, bargaining discounts average 15-20%, reaching up to 30% in some places. For individual areas, transaction prices may differ significantly from offer prices.

Two approaches and professional calculation

To navigate the prices, it makes sense for buyers to start from the prices of those plots (of the potentially suitable ones) that cost the least. As a rule, they are exhibited (exhibited) for more than a year, and sometimes several years, their prices have already been reduced several times and they are as close as possible to the prices at which they will eventually be bought.

Professional appraisers conduct a more in-depth analysis to calculate the value of the land. Traditionally, the two most applicable approaches are comparative and income.

The comparative approach is based on comparing prices for plots with comparable characteristics and constructing a mathematical calculation model that takes into account the differences between analogous objects and the assessed plot.

The income approach relies on the cash flow that the property being assessed generates or is capable of generating.

Comparative approach to land valuation

When selecting analogue objects within the framework of the comparative approach, appraisers rely on pricing factors that have developed in the agricultural land market.

Here it is important to correctly assess the potential of the sites. For example, pricing in areas where a change in the category of land is being actively carried out into land of settlements or industrial land (in the Leningrad region these are Vsevolozhsk and Kingisepp districts) differs significantly from those where this is practiced to a lesser extent.

Location

Location is the most important thing in the land. First of all, these are the global characteristics of the area - the general socio-economic condition of the territory. For example, plots in the Moscow and Leningrad regions are, as a rule, more expensive than in other regions of Russia.

The second level of location characteristics are characteristics that reflect proximity to the consumer, as well as the convenience of organizing work in the fields. In particular, proximity to highways, the administrative center and populated areas with human resources has a predominant influence on the cost in this aspect.

Location is the first factor (after functional purpose) by which appraisers exclude objects different from the one being appraised from offers on the market.

When constructing a mathematical model, this factor is assigned the greatest weight. In total, the elements of the location factor contribute from 40 to 60% to the formation of the cost of the object.

Rights

The legal component of the issue also plays an important role. Obviously, plots on the right of ownership are preferable, despite the fact that, other things being equal, the difference compared to the right of long-term lease is 15-20%. The least liquid asset is land shares. This is also evidenced by the reluctance of most banks to consider them as collateral for loans.

In the legal field, the value is also influenced by the permitted use. For example, private plots, all other things being equal, will be more expensive than plots for agricultural production due to the fact that residential buildings can be additionally erected on them.

Communications

The presence of communications allows the complex use of land, and also be considered as an additional positive factor for transfer to another category. Therefore, evaluators analyze existing communications for their legitimacy, condition and strength.

Agronomic factors

Technological properties of the land, soil fertility, land structure (arable land, hayfields, pastures), proximity to water for irrigation, and the presence of reclamation systems are important, but have a lesser impact on the value of land.

This is also indicated by the difficulty of collecting agronomic information from sellers.

Square

If we compare the cost of one hectare in plots of different sizes, then the rule most often works: the smaller the plot area, the higher the cost per hectare. This is due to the fact that smaller plots are more liquid and easier and faster to sell. So, for example, the prices of offers in the Volosovsky district of the Leningrad region for plots with an area of up to 10 hectares range from 200 thousand rubles per 1 hectare, and with an area of over 100 hectares - no more than 120 thousand rubles per 1 hectare.

When we are talking about plots amounting to millions of square meters, it is no longer a separate region that is subject to analysis, but almost the entire part of Russia (for example, European). The supply of such huge plots is limited. Prices for 1 hectare range from 10 thousand to 20 thousand (less often - 30 thousand) rubles per 1 hectare. At the same time, investor interest in such plots lies in the range from 8 thousand to 15 thousand rubles per hectare.

Today, more transactions occur with small plots - up to 25 hectares. Farms purchase additional land for various purposes. As a rule, they choose from those that are closer to those already available. This is logical both organizationally and logistically.

Transactions with large areas of 1 thousand hectares or more are of an investment nature. Such transactions are isolated cases. Despite the fact that the agricultural sector is one of the most subsidized, entry into serious projects with investments amounting to hundreds of millions of rubles or more is difficult. Difficulties are associated with the low level of supply in the project financing market, as well as the problem of selling finished products.

Income approach

As part of the income approach, the appraiser calculates the land rent indicator - the difference between the average gross income from the site and costs, taking into account the entrepreneur’s profit.

When calculating, the appraiser analyzes which crops and with what frequency can be grown on the property being assessed, based on actual or regulatory data, taking into account current selling prices, and receives the total income.

The cost part is calculated in a similar way, including, in addition to costs, the entrepreneur’s profit (based on the industry average profitability for each selected crop).

The resulting land rent indicator is capitalized. The result reflects the value of the object. The capitalization ratio is based on an analysis of risks from investing in agriculture, low asset liquidity, investment management and other risks. For particularly risky projects it can reach 17%.

The results from both approaches are weighted by the evaluator, bringing the results to a single value.

The most popular professional assessment is for lending secured by land. However, banks tend to apply their own collateral discount to the result obtained by the appraiser, on average 40%.

Problems and solutions

As mentioned above, the land market reflects industry trends. To be more precise, it is one of the last to reflect these trends.

In connection with Russia's accession to the WTO, competition in the market for agricultural products is only increasing. However, experts hope that under the auspices of the declared desire for GDP growth and a reduction in import substitution, the situation in the country may change.

First of all, if, in continuation of this proclamation, the authorities reconsider their attitude towards monetary policy. To develop the industry, it is necessary to extend loans and reduce interest rates.

Secondly, if agricultural producers change the existing approach to farming. Even with the existing volume of subsidies, if the business is properly organized, solving the sales problem can show good results.

Today, the most promising and viable application of the principle “made it yourself, sell it yourself” seems to be the most promising and viable. When agricultural producers build a chain within one cluster: feed supply - production of raw materials - processing - and, most importantly, sales. Without guaranteed sales of goods to the end consumer, without its own retail, the industry will not develop.

With the growth of investment activity, the demand for land will also increase, with all the ensuing consequences.

A distinctive feature of land, if we consider it as an economic resource, is the limited availability of this product. The main feature and main difference between land and labor and capital, which belong to the mobile factors of production, is the immobility of this resource, therefore in production this resource qualifies as a specific factor.

When analyzing the Russian market for agricultural land plots as of 2015, a number of fundamental features should be taken into account. First of all, you need to take into account that despite changes in the pricing policy on the land market, the general offer for the sale of land plots is constant and is not tied to an increase or decrease in the value of farmland. RuGBC - Russian green building council .

The key factors that determine the cost of a particular plot of land are the technological features of the plot (the composition and fertility of the soil directly affect what crops can be grown on a given plot of land), as well as the geographical location of the plot, on which the climate directly depends. location of the wind rose, average precipitation in a given region, etc. A favorable geographical location (on which all of the above natural factors depend), and the technological characteristics of the soil, form a certain quality of the land plot, and determine the suitability of the land for conducting agricultural production on it, or the impossibility of organizing a profitable farm on it. This is the limitation of this product on the land market, and this is why the cost of agricultural land remains consistently high. As a rule, the number of areas suitable for agricultural production is limited in each region. By the way, with a significant amount of labor and high investment, the amount of space that can ultimately be used for agricultural production can be significantly increased.

For Russia, land is not only an economic or production factor, but also a socio-political one, with the latter meaning being the most important. The agricultural land market, at the moment, despite the increasing attention from the state and the regular increase in the volume of subsidies to the industry, is a rather poorly organized and opaque industry. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the exact number of areas that are suitable or can, in the future, be transferred to the category suitable for agricultural production is unknown. But despite all these difficulties, this segment of the land market is actively developing. This can be judged by the ever-increasing interest in agricultural land and the constant increase in the volume of sales of such plots.

Every year the area of land that is allocated and used for agriculture is increasing. And this is quite natural, because given the fertility and climate perfectly suitable for growing crops, in most regions of the Russian Federation, farming is a very profitable industry. Thanks to the emergence of more and more new producers and enthusiasts who want to invest in agriculture, and thereby improve the well-being of the industry, the Russian agricultural land market is actively developing. Every year in Russia, based on data from cadastral services, tens of thousands of land purchase and sale transactions are carried out, and there is a noticeable tendency to increase the number of agreements that fall precisely on that part of the land market that relates to agricultural land.

But despite the noticeable improvement in the agricultural industry, there are also significant problems that require urgent solutions. And they are mainly related to the current political situation. Thus, in the first six months, only $3 billion was invested in the land market, which was the worst indicator in this industry over the past 10 years.

The instability of the national currency played a huge role in this, and instability in the country’s foreign exchange market inevitably makes significant adjustments to the total number of transactions in the land market. The significant increase in the value of the currency that arose at the beginning of the year also affected the increase in the cost of land, which in turn reduced the number of buyers wishing to purchase or lease agricultural land at significantly increased prices. The result of the jumps in the ruble and the huge decrease in the number of transactions on the land market was a reduction in total sales volumes by half, compared to the same period in 2014. This has led to a significant decline in land investment. Due to such an unstable economic situation, many previously concluded agreements were even terminated.

Carrying out an analysis of the Russian market for agricultural land plots as of 2015, it becomes obvious that transactions for the sale or acquisition of land plots account for about 40% of all land transactions concluded on the territory of the Russian Federation. In second place, after the transfer of plots into full ownership through acquisition, comes the inheritance of land. This figure is about 30% of the total. The remaining types of transactions in the land market (transfer of land into shared ownership, long-term, short-term lease, etc.), making up the remaining 30% of the total volume of all transactions with land, are various small transactions (by the amount of area), which in size countries, in practice, are of no particular importance and are not able to influence the state of the land market as a whole. Today, due to the difficult situation in the foreign policy arena, the number of foreign investors wishing to invest in the development of agricultural land in the long term has decreased significantly. Flower business: growing flowers in greenhouses

Analyzing the land market, as of May 2016, it is obvious that the investment attractiveness of land suitable for agriculture has increased in some regions to 35% (an average of about 25 percent). Positive dynamics are noticeable on the Russian land market, primarily due to the increased government attention to this industry. According to experts, the current increase in investment inflows is the first step towards the fact that after 2020 Russia will become practically independent of food imports, and will also increase agricultural exports by more than 50 percent.

As of 2015 - 2016, the total area of land is 168 million hectares - this is a huge territory. Taking into account the fact that in many regions of Russia these lands are used in agricultural production up to 70%, the total profit from farming at the state level should be a fabulous amount. But unfortunately, this is not the case, and in some European countries, the profitability of one hectare of agricultural land exceeds Russian indicators by up to 7 times. This is primarily due to the fact that agricultural activities in most domestic enterprises are carried out using a materially and technically outdated production base, an insufficient number of highly qualified specialists, and incorrect construction of the principles of farming as a raw material base.
But in order to understand the true state of the Russian land market, it is necessary to consider in detail its pressing problems. To begin with, you should approach the study of prices for agricultural land. According to experts who professionally calculate the cost of land, we should not expect a significant jump in the growth of land prices in the near future. This is due to the fact that the bulk of agricultural land is in share or other ownership of ordinary citizens who do not closely monitor the situation on the foreign exchange market, and they will not, unlike landowners who trade land professionally, increase the cost of agricultural land. land every day, adjusting to the ruble exchange rate. There is also a noticeable trend in which land prices have begun to increase depending on regional location. Thus, in the southern regions, the average cost of agricultural land increased to 23% compared to 2013, and land plots located in the central regions increased in price by an average of 10%. In addition, there is the problem of an outdated approach to land cultivation - the industry needs transformation and improvement.

The primary objectives are the replacement of material and technical support, as well as the transition from the production of exclusively raw materials to its complete processing into a final product that will be of interest to a wide range of consumers. It is also necessary to introduce a unified state program to support agricultural producers, according to which the industry will be able to develop step by step, following the development concept defined in the program.

As follows from the above, regular monitoring of the Russian agricultural land market is an integral component of the successful development of the industry. It is thanks to careful monitoring of the land market and analysis of the obtained indicators that it becomes possible to track the dynamics of the development of this industry as a whole. This work clearly shows the enormous potential of the Russian land market and its bright prospects. But the achievement of this industry at the proper level is impossible without the adoption of effective federal and state development programs, the absence of which is the reason for the decline in investment, a decrease in the total number of transactions in the land market and a significant decline in profits received from the sale or rental of land plots.

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The review contains an analysis of the market for agricultural land plots in the Yaroslavl region as of June 1, 2014.

Currently, the market for agricultural land plots for organizing agricultural production includes large-scale land plots with an area of over 1000 hectares, as well as small land plots of up to 10 hectares. Land plots in private, state or municipal ownership are offered for sale and lease, and investment sites are being prepared for agricultural development.

A number of agricultural land plots for organizing agricultural production are offered on the open market as commercial land for organizing retail and consumer services enterprises or as land for housing construction, while a change in the purpose and type of permitted use of this land plot is expected.

The situation on the land market is largely determined by the development of the agro-industrial complex and the presence of targeted development programs. A developed agro-industrial complex has been formed in the Yaroslavl region. Agricultural land in the region includes almost 1 million hectares. The most developed branch of agriculture in the region is livestock farming. Crop production is mainly aimed at providing feed for the livestock industry, and only a few areas have developed the production of marketable crop products.

In total, 2046.5 million rubles were allocated for the implementation of measures to support the agro-industrial complex (in 2012 - 1679.7 million rubles), including 1198.5 million rubles from the federal budget (in 2012 - 664 million rubles), from the regional budget 848 million rubles (in 2012 - 1015.7 million rubles).

In 2013, certain positive results were achieved in the agro-industrial complex. According to the Information and Consulting Service of the Agro-Industrial Complex, the index of physical volume of agricultural production compared to the level of 2012 is 99.6%, labor productivity 105.2%. The growth in revenue from the sale of agricultural products is 5%, the growth in production costs is 9%. As a result, the overall profitability (including subsidies) will be approximately 3%.

Yaroslavl "Information and Consulting Service of the Agro-Industrial Complex" provides support for investment projects. Investors are invited to consider investment sites in municipal districts of the Yaroslavl region. Infrastructural capabilities, availability of land and labor resources will make it possible to create a new efficient production or reconstruct an existing one. Tax benefits are also provided for the implementation of investment projects, including complete exemption from property tax (rate - 0%), tax rate for income tax 0% indefinitely, complete exemption from transport tax (rate - 0%), tax benefits for land tax. It is possible to provide subsidies from the budget to compensate for infrastructure costs as part of an investment agreement.

Supply on the market of agricultural land plots in the Yaroslavl region

The land market in the Yaroslavl region is heterogeneous. Both areas where there is no supply of agricultural land and areas with high potential are identified. The supply of land for agricultural production is characterized by a relatively small number of objects, however, the area of land usually exceeds 1 hectare and can reach 2,500 hectares in the case of the supply of land for an agricultural production complex. The bulk of the supply of land for agricultural production is represented by large plots of land, the demand for which is limited. The average area of land plots based on market monitoring results was 80 hectares.

The largest volume of supply in terms of land area for agricultural production falls on the Uglich region - 61% and the Pereslavl region - 21% of the total supply. The share of Bolsheselsky, Poshekhonsky and Nekouzsky districts was 8%, 6% and 2%, respectively. All other districts account for a total of only 2% of land area, with the share of each of them being less than 1%.

Rice. 1. Geographical structure of the supply of land plots for agricultural production

The structure of the proposal is dictated by the geographical location of the areas. The Uglich district borders on the Tver region, Pereslavl - on the Tver, Moscow and Vladimir regions. The Neokuzsky district borders on the one hand with the Tver region, on the other - with the Rybinsk reservoir. Poshekhonsky district also borders the Rybinsk reservoir and the Vologda region. The predominance of supply in the Uglich and Pereslavl districts, as well as in the Bolsheselsky district, is explained by the gravitation towards Moscow and the focus on Muscovites.

Rice. 2. Concentration of supply of agricultural land plots

Demand and commercial conditions on the agricultural land market in the Yaroslavl region

The situation on the market for land plots for agricultural production is characterized by an extremely low level of demand against the backdrop of the most diverse supply. The implementation of government programs (grants under the program to support beginning farmers) is fueling interest in relatively small plots of land. In turn, investors prefer to invest money in large land tracts for organizing livestock farming, as well as for growing crops, that is, in those projects in which the degree of payback and profitability is the highest. However, despite the support of the state, the terms of exposure of land plots are quite high, and the level of transactions is low.

The most significant, from the point of view of influencing the cost of land plots of this category, are location factors (distance from Moscow and the Rybinsk reservoir), as well as communications and the presence of a reservoir in the immediate vicinity.

Prospects for use, namely the possibility of transferring a site to another category and use for housing construction, for commercial and household facilities or roadside infrastructure, also have a significant impact on the cost of land plots. The average cost per square meter of land plots, the best use of which involves transferring to another category and changing the type of permitted use, exceeds the average cost of land plots directly for agricultural production by 10-12 times.

Based on the results of the 1st quarter of 2014, the highest average supply price for land plots for agricultural production (excluding lands whose type of permitted use is expected to change) was in the Nekouzsky and Poshekhonsky districts of the Yaroslavl region - 19.5 rubles / sq. m. m and 17.5 rub./sq.m. This is explained by the relatively small volume of supply, good transport accessibility to the sites (asphalt roads), and the availability of communications, including gas. It is worth noting that, despite the high average cost per square meter, there are also offers with low selling prices in this area: the Niva investment site (on the territory of the Nekouzsky agricultural cooperative and Niva LLC) is offered for sale or long-term lease , the sale price ranges from 1-1.5 rubles/sq.m., the rental cost is 120 rubles/ha.

The most popular areas are the Pereslavl and Uglich areas; the high level of supply in these areas is reflected in the average cost of supply - the cost of 1 sq.m. amounted to 10.5 rubles, and 8 rubles. respectively. On the contrary, the low level of supply caused a relatively high level of average cost in the Lyublinsky district, bordering the Kostroma and Vologo regions - 8.5 rubles/sq.m.

The lowest average offer price was recorded in the Rostov region - 1.5 rubles/sq.m.

Rice. 3. Average supply price by districts of the Yaroslavl region

The average supply price of agricultural land plots in the Yaroslavl region as a whole is about 9.5 rubles/sq.m. m.

Average cost of 1 sq. m. based on the results of transactions with land plots for agricultural production in the Yaroslavl region as a whole amounted to 5.5 rubles/sq.m.

Trends and forecasts:

In general, the policy of the regional leadership favors the development of investment activity in the Yaroslavl region, the presence of regional investment legislation that allows investing with minimal risk, as well as a specialized unit in the regional administration;
The development of agriculture in the short term is facilitated by the possibility of obtaining tax benefits and subventions for the implementation of investment projects that are priority for the region;
The region's land market will continue to be significantly influenced by its proximity to Moscow, a source of investment and the largest consumer market (the region is located only 282 kilometers from Moscow)
The most in demand will remain areas close to Moscow and the Moscow region - Uglichsky and Pereslavsky, as well as areas with significant water resources - Nekouzsky, Rybinsky, Poshekhonsky.

Conclusions:

Currently, the market for agricultural land plots shows a significant excess of supply over demand and relatively low sales prices.

The implementation of agricultural development programs, increasing the availability of raw materials and developing measures to stimulate the direct sale of own products will increase the investment attractiveness of the sector, which will entail an increase in the value of land plots and the further development of the market for agricultural land plots.

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Buy land in the Moscow region (from 1 ha)

When wondering where to invest money, it is worth taking a closer look at land plots in the Moscow region. This is a place of unique beauty, characterized by a large number of forests. Sale of agricultural land in Moscow and the Moscow region, industrial land, industrial land for sale, Industrial land is currently in high demand.

The high demand for land in the Moscow region, especially at the present time, is quite understandable.

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Moscow region.

Area – 44,379 sq. km, population (as of January 1, 2013) – 7.05 million people. GRP (2011) – 2.24 trillion rubles. GRP growth (2011) – 8.1%. Industrial production index (2012) – 109.4%.

Average monthly accrued salary (January – November 2012) – 32,938 rubles.

Agricultural land in the Moscow region market overview

Today, country real estate is rightfully considered one of the most interesting and attractive market segments for private investors. In a matter of years, this market, which is fundamentally new for Russians, has completely taken shape.

In other words, the principles of price formation, the structure of demand, and the geography of supply have become clearly understood.

Over the past year, the countryside real estate market has been in the process of active development.

Agricultural land market

The land market, as a rule, very well reflects the general situation in the industry for which it is intended.

Today, the agricultural land market is a buyer's market. In general, the supply volume is large and a downward trend in prices is expected. Supply greatly exceeds demand.

Despite this, many sellers rely on the amount they have invested in the land or property complex.

The period from 2005 to 2008 was a time of prosperity for the land market in the Moscow region, as well as for the entire real estate market. How the land market responded to the economic unrest that came to Russia, whether it is possible to continue to consider land as a reliable strategic investment object and what will happen to land prices in 2012 - these questions, like many others, today have no clear answers.

Analysis of the agricultural land market in the Ryazan region

The current situation in the market for agricultural land plots is characterized by a pronounced imbalance of supply and demand, which is characterized, first of all, by the presence of the most diverse number of objects and the lack of proper demand for this type of plots. Currently, the agricultural land market includes large-scale land plots with an area of over 1000 hectares, as well as small land plots of up to 10 hectares for organizing small subsidiary plots.

Overview of the agricultural land market in the Yaroslavl region

Land plots in private, state or municipal ownership are offered for sale and lease, and investment sites are being prepared for agricultural development.

Before you buy agricultural land, you need to understand what they are and what their features are.

The most important and basic characteristic is that they must be located outside the territory of a populated area (city, village, town, etc.).

Where the border lies can be seen in the general plan of the territory.

Inside there will be lands of settlements, and outside - lands for agricultural purposes.

If the plots are allocated from common shared ownership and their boundaries are established on the ground, the price of offers increases at least 3-4 times. I would like to pay special attention to the prices of offers for agricultural land. No other market segment offers such a wide price range! Even a superficial review of proposals makes it possible to identify sites in the same municipal area whose prices differ tenfold. The price range can confuse even an experienced appraiser. To avoid mistakes, you should first of all understand the degree of investment attractiveness of the exhibited land plots. Information obtained from ad texts and a survey of sellers revealed the following trends.

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For trade - areas at the intersection of the highway (multi-lane) with the Moscow Ring Road, with convenient transport accessibility.” Rates Over the past 5 years, the cost of land plots in the Moscow region has been growing, and this trend has affected almost all areas and purposes of land use.

For example, according to GVA Sawyer, the cost of 1 hectare of agricultural land along the Novorizhskoe highway at a distance of 50-70 km from the Moscow Ring Road was $100 in 2003; by 2008, land with the same characteristics reached the cost of $3,000, that is, an increase of about 3,000%. At the same time, according to company analysts, the peak of growth occurred in the period from 2005 to mid-2007, and from mid-2007 the rate of growth in land value began to decline.

The cost of land along the Kyiv Highway grew slightly less actively: from $500 per hundred square meters of land in 2003 to $7,000 in 2008.

Land plots in Moscow - review for 2015

Attention

Even if permission to transfer is obtained, this procedure is associated with certain time and material costs. Here the appraiser is directly confronted with the problem of best use (BUT). Analysis of the best use of a site classified as agricultural land and intended for agricultural production does not in any case imply alternative use (for cottage development, roadside infrastructure, etc.).

For agricultural land such as arable land, NEI is the use of a site as part of a scientifically based crop rotation, which contributes not only to obtaining high yields at minimal cost, but also to restoring and increasing soil fertility.

Overview of the agricultural land market in the Arkhangelsk region

The Samara region is part of the Volga Federal District. It borders in the west with the Ulyanovsk region, in the north with the Republic of Tatarstan, in the east with the Orenburg region, in the southwest with the Saratov region, and at its southernmost point it touches the Republic of Kazakhstan.

As of January 1, 2014, the land fund of the Samara region within the administrative boundaries is 5356.5 thousand hectares. The share of agricultural land accounts for 4070.1 thousand.
hectares, that is, almost 76% of the entire territory. The area of agricultural land as part of agricultural land is 3796.5 thousand hectares (93.28%), including: arable land - 2857.7 thousand hectares (70.21%), fallow lands - 105.4 thousand hectares ( 2.58%), perennial plantings - 27.8 thousand hectares (0.68%), hayfields - 50.5 thousand hectares (1.24%) and pastures - 755.1 thousand hectares (18.55%) ).

Overview of the agricultural land market

Important

However, experts hope that under the auspices of the declared desire for GDP growth and a reduction in import substitution, the situation in the country may change. First of all, if, in continuation of this proclamation, the authorities reconsider their attitude towards monetary policy.

To develop the industry, it is necessary to extend loans and reduce interest rates. Secondly, if agricultural producers change the existing approach to farming. Even with the existing volume of subsidies, if the business is properly organized and the sales problem is solved, good results can be shown.

Analysis of the agricultural land market

But in order to understand the true state of the Russian land market, it is necessary to consider in detail its pressing problems. To begin with, you should approach the study of prices for agricultural land.
According to experts who professionally calculate the cost of land, we should not expect a significant jump in the growth of land prices in the near future. This is due to the fact that the bulk of agricultural land is in share or other ownership of ordinary citizens who do not closely monitor the situation on the foreign exchange market, and they will not, unlike landowners who trade land professionally, increase the cost of agricultural land. land every day, adjusting to the ruble exchange rate. There is also a noticeable trend in which land prices have begun to increase depending on regional location.

Analysis of the agricultural land market

Increasing the supply of liquid land plots in Moscow and beyond due to the hasty sale of assets by owners burdened with loans requiring repayment.
Increasing the number of potential buyers interested in the possibility of investment acquisitions in the land market.
A more flexible approach of owners in negotiations when selling land assets.
The end of the period of rapid growth in land prices, a decrease in the value of low-liquid land assets.
The land market of the Moscow region has recently been replenished by plots adjacent to settlements, which, as a result of the approval of the boundaries of these settlements, are transferred to the category of “settlement land”.

Forecast The development of the land market largely depends on the financial condition of its participants, the future of which is currently very vague.

Moreover, the maximum drop occurred in the 4th quarter of 2008, and compared to the previous quarter, prices were only slightly adjusted. The fall in prices is due to the fact. that today it is very, very difficult to sell agricultural land, so landowners who want to sell their assets have to offer impressive discounts.

Developers currently do not have extra funds for the development of agricultural land (change of category, land surveying, etc.). as a result of this, the demand for such land is almost completely absent, especially for large areas. The fall in prices for plots up to 30 km from the Moscow Ring Road compared to the 4th quarter of 2008 was 23.9%, in the range of 31-60 km from the Moscow Ring Road - a drop of 18.8%, at a distance of more than 61 km from the Moscow Ring Road - a drop of 41, 8%.

Despite the fact that the agricultural sector is one of the most subsidized, entry into serious projects with investments amounting to hundreds of millions of rubles or more is difficult. Difficulties are associated with the low level of supply in the project financing market, as well as the problem of selling finished products. As part of the income approach, the appraiser calculates the land rent indicator - the difference between the average gross income from the site and costs, taking into account the entrepreneur’s profit. When calculating, the appraiser analyzes which crops and with what frequency can be grown on the site being assessed, focusing on actual or regulatory data, taking into account current selling prices, and receives the total income.
The cost part is calculated in a similar way, including, in addition to costs, the entrepreneur’s profit (based on the industry average profitability for each selected crop).

Review of the agricultural land market in the Moscow region 2016

For individual areas, transaction prices may differ significantly from offer prices. Professional calculation In order to navigate the prices, it makes sense for buyers to start from the prices of those plots (of the potentially suitable ones) that cost the least. As a rule, they are exhibited for more than a year, and sometimes several years, their prices have already been reduced several times and they are as close as possible to the prices at which they will eventually be bought. Professional appraisers conduct a more in-depth analysis to calculate the value of the land. Traditionally, the two most applicable approaches are comparative and income. A comparative approach based on comparing prices for plots with comparable characteristics and constructing a mathematical calculation model that takes into account the differences between analogue objects and the assessed plot.
The income approach relies on the cash flow that the property being assessed generates or is capable of generating.

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