Analysis and forecast of market conditions. Assessment of investment attractiveness and investment needs of Sintez LLC

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Marketing analysis is the process of drawing conclusions from collected and properly grouped information. The analysis has two stages:

1) ascertaining assessments of the state and development of the market and

2) explanation of the current situation, identification and modeling of cause-and-effect relationships, scientific forecasting of further development. Marketing analysis serves the purpose of developing a marketing strategy, making specific marketing decisions and ensuring the effectiveness of the company's marketing activities.

Marketing analysis- assessment, explanation and forecast of the market situation, the process of product distribution and the company’s own potential using statistical, econometric and other research methods.

The methodology of marketing analysis includes: statistical methods - absolute, average, relative values, groupings. indices, variation analysis, correlation-regression and multivariate analysis, graphical method, trend models: econometric modeling - linear and dynamic programming. models based on queuing theory (queuing theory) and decision-making theory (risk theory), logistic models; qualimetric methods; use of strategic matrices (grids), etc. Marketing analysis must be systematic, that is, cover the entire market and market processes in their structural hierarchy, in dynamic development and in interrelation. It includes:

- situational (conjunctural) analysis;

- analysis of the potential of your own company;

- analysis of competitor capabilities.

10.1. Analysis and forecast of market conditions

Any marketing activity (decision to release a new product, concluding a sales contract, leaving the market, changing prices, etc.) is carried out taking into account the market situation. Therefore, market analysis is a necessary component of marketing research.

Conjuncture (from lat.conjungo -connect, connect) market- the specific situation that has developed on the market at the moment or for a limited period of time, as well as the set of conditions that determine this situation.

What is meant by market situation, or state of the market?

 Degree of market balance(ratio of supply and demand).

 Market type(competitive, monopolistic, etc.).

 Market development trends(changes, their vectors, speed and intensity).

 Scale and degree of business activity(fullness of the company’s business portfolio, number and size of orders, volume of transactions, etc.).

 Stability/fluctuation of the main market parameters.

 Risk level.

Market trends are determined based on an analysis of changes in the main market parameters (sales, prices, inventory). Dynamic series of growth rates or their graphic representations (diagrams) are visually examined. A more reliable conclusion is based on trend models (statistical alignment), which not only determine the vector and speed of development, but also its nature: acceleration (power and exponential curve, parabola), growth with deceleration (semi-logarithmic curve), decline with deceleration (hyperbola) , uniform development (straight), etc. In table 10.1 shows their formulas.

As can be seen from the figures given in the table, trend models reflect certain differences in the nature and speed of market development. So, equation of a line reflects uniform development, without slowing down or speeding up. Equations: exponential and power curves, and 2nd order parabolas show the presence of accelerated development with varying degrees of intensity. It should be borne in mind that the equations of a straight line and a parabola, changing the sign “+” to “-”, can show the mirror opposite process of contraction and fall. The reverse, regressive development of the market, occurring with some slowdown, is characterized by hyperbola equation. And finally, semilogarithmic curve equation reflects the gradually fading growth of market processes. In addition to those mentioned, other, more complex models of market development are used in marketing. However, using application programs and a personal computer, it is easy to build any trend model that reflects the development trends of market processes.

Table 10.1 Trend equation curves

Trend models are also used for short-term forecasts when there is a possibility of inertial market development. It is assumed that past trends can be spread (extrapolate) for the forecast period. The number of the subsequent (predicted n-th period - t n) is substituted into the equation formula. For a long-term period when market conditions change, this method is not suitable.

An important stage of market analysis is to characterize the sustainability of market development. The greater the range of fluctuations, the higher the level of risk, the less reliable the forecasts. Market volatility is manifested in deviations of actual levels from the trend line, which expresses the development trend. You can visually determine the degree of market stability using a graphical image, or more accurately, using the following formula:

n is the number of levels of the dynamic series.

Depending on the characteristics obtained, assessments of the development and state of the market are given:

 strong (developing) market;

 sustainable developing market;

 unstable developing market;

 stable market (with high trading activity);

 stagnating market (with low trading activity);

 decline in market activity;

 market contraction.

It is not possible to quantify consumer demand in the local market for any product. Only indirect, qualitative (attributive) assessments can be given based on monitoring changes in sales, prices, inventory, and receipt of goods (deliveries). These indicators are called indexes business activity. Their analysis is based on the following premises: if an increase in supply is accompanied by an increase in sales, stability or reduction in prices and a reduction in inventories, then demand increases (increased demand); if, with an increase in supply, sales remain unchanged or fall, prices decrease, and inventories increase, then demand is limited or decreases, etc. To characterize the market situation, a market table is compiled (Table 10.2).

Table 10.2 Assessment of market conditions

Market indicators

Market characteristics

Supply

Sale

Reserves

Prices

Height

s t a b.

s p a d

Height

s t a b.

s p a d

Height

s t a b.

s p a d

Height

s t a b.

s p a D

Stagnating market

Emerging market

Stable market

Scarce market

The analysis is complemented by a comparison of sales growth rates And inventories indicating a balanced or unbalanced market:

There are a number of other methods of market analysis, but their essence remains unchanged - comparison of market indicators and business activity indices, assessment of supply and demand. It should be taken into account that such an assessment of the market state always contains an element of subjectivity. Therefore, attempts have long been made in marketing to create economic barometer- a multifactor model that includes all or the main market parameters. It turned out, however, that this was associated with great methodological difficulties, often insurmountable. In this regard, research thought took a different path - the path of creating a multidimensional quantitative (score) assessment of the main parameters. Each parameter (it does not matter how it is characterized - quantitatively, qualitatively, attributively or alternatively) in accordance with this characteristic is expertly assigned a score B i , as well as a weight Wi , which reflects the role of the i-th parameter in the formation of the market situation.

Then, using the weighted arithmetic average formula, the average score is calculated, which serves as an integrated assessment of the state and development of the market. Sometimes it is called a strategic index or market situation index (I market situation):

The higher this index, the more favorable the situation and the more promising the market. The method for calculating such indices is sometimes used in strategic matrices (see section 1.3).

An important place in market analysis is occupied by the determination of capacity market.

Market volume- the amount of goods that the market is able to absorb (purchase) over a certain period of time and under certain conditions.

The fundamental formula for calculating market capacity is as follows:

The need to identify consumer groups is associated with differentiation of demand according to social and age characteristics. These differences are determined using special surveys (in particular, according to panel surveys or government statistics family budgets). The introduction of an adjustment for changes in prices and income is due to the fact that demand is extremely elastic; it changes flexibly with fluctuations in prices and income.

It is measured by a coefficient determined by the formula

When E<1 проявляется явлениеinfraelasticity, the product is considered inelastic and demand cannot be regulated;

when E=1 demand is considered unitary or weakly elastic, its regulation makes no sense;

at E<1 проявляется явлениеultra-elasticity, demand can be regulated by changing prices or income.

The given formula (it is called empirical elasticity coefficient), despite its simplicity and accessibility, has a significant drawback: it reflects the influence of one factor on demand, while it is assumed that the change is entirely due to the action of this factor, although in fact this is not the case. Demand is simultaneously influenced by a complex of factors, which can be reflected using a multifactor demand model:

where y - demand;

b i , - regression coefficients reflecting the influence of the corresponding i-th factor; x i - factors; n is the number of i factors.

Using the parameters of a multifactor regression equation, it is possible to construct “pure” elasticity coefficients (they are called “theoretical”), freed from the influence of other factors:

The multifactor demand model is also used for forecasting purposes. In this case, it is constructed based on time series data and the time factor (1) is additionally introduced into it. It takes into account all changes in factors, but for this you need to know their predicted values (you can replace actual data with hypotheses: if such and such factors are at a given level, then the demand will be a certain value, if the factors are different, then the demand will have a different value). Let us recall that the forecast can be quite reliably carried out using expert assessment methods. Sometimes a detailed forecast is given in the form of a scenario, where various techniques are combined, and the point forecast is replaced by a multivariate one. Methods of descriptive analysis of one’s own actions are used, and assumptions are made about the counter actions of competitors.

10.2. Product quality analysis

An important point in assessing a company’s own capabilities is self-certification: a characteristic of the level of quality and competitiveness of a product. More often than others, qualimetric scoring of individual product properties is used. Technical (hard) parameters are measured and compared with standards or corresponding parameters of a competing product. Aesthetic (soft) parameters are assessed by experts. Based on the data obtained, the so-called partial and summary parametric indices are calculated. Summary indicators are calculated as the arithmetic average of the points assigned to the parameters. The significance ranks of each parameter, derived by expert means, are used as weights. The integrated quality indicator is determined by the following formula:

where B is an integrated indicator of product quality;

B i - quality level of the individual i-th parameter (parametric index);

F i is the weight (rank) of the significance of the i-th parameter (its role in consumption).

A variant of the considered model is consumer assessments of goods, which are considered as indicators of consumer preferences, as well as characterization of the importance of individual properties of the product, from the point of view of consumers. They are derived from the results of a survey (questionnaire) of consumers.

Based on a survey of consumers or experts, product perception models are built: “product - market”. The multidimensional scaling method is used, the essence of which is that the consumer determines the place of the product (one of the brands) on a scale reflecting a certain characteristic. Subsequently, they are statistically processed (averages, model values, etc. are calculated). The model reflects the place of the product in the market (Fig. 10.1).

In a similar way, you can evaluate the factors and criteria of a company’s position (both its own and a competitor’s), identify the brand image, characterize the competitiveness of goods and companies, etc.

Rice.10.1. Model market Nth goods (12stamps)

In marketing analysis of diversification (see section 1.3), the so-called ABC analysis is often used. Its goal is to identify the prospects of the assortment policy (see sections 1.4 and 1.5). To do this, a Lorenz concentration curve is plotted; assortment groups are located along the x-axis, arranged in descending order of their share in the total sales volume, and along the y-axis is the size of turnover. Assortment groups are divided into three blocks according to selected criteria (sales, profit costs). Blocks A, B, C correspond to a large contribution to total sales (assortment groups 1-4), an average contribution (5-7) and a small contribution (8-20). Having identified such assortment blocks, the company should pursue a policy of reducing or eliminating block C in order to reduce low-productivity costs and diversify block A, reducing the risk of becoming dependent on the results of promoting a small number of products (Fig. 10.2).

In the analytical support for the development of a company's marketing strategy, portfolio analysis methods are widely used, in particular the construction of strategic matrices (lattices), which make it possible to characterize the position (rating) of the company in the market, reflecting the combination of the current market situation and the achieved potential of the company (see Section 1.3) . .

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Relevance of the topic

The economic activity of any manufacturer is doomed to failure if he does not have information about the prospects for market development, its capacity, the state of supply and demand, as well as the level of competition, etc. Some enterprises are already taking their first steps in this area, but the relative novelty of marketing analysis , the lack of scientific and methodological approaches focused on this area of activity leads to the episodic use of individual elements of analysis and does not produce tangible results. At the same time, the lack of market forecasting leads in some cases to significant financial losses for the enterprise. This determines the need for marketing market analysis.

Scientific research and publications

Theoretical and practical aspects of marketing analysis are reflected in the scientific works of both foreign and domestic economists: I. Berezina, V. Voylenko, T. Derevyanenko, V. Karpov, A. Kovalev, D. Kostyukhin, V. Kucherenko, F. Levshina, S. Nikitin, E. Peshkova, F. Piskoppel, T. Ryzhova, S. Skibinsky and others. However, in their works little attention is paid to marketing market research and its indicators. And these questions are relevant and require further research. The goal is to determine the essence of marketing market analysis and characterize the main stages of its implementation. It is worth noting that market analysis is one of the most complex types of marketing research. After all, its subject is to establish the main development trends, its fluctuations, as well as assessing the potential and basic proportions. Market analysis should be carried out in a certain sequence:

research of the main features and characteristics of the market;
assessing the dynamics of growth of structural elements of the situation;
development of a system of market indicators;
accumulation and collection of market information;
monitoring factors that influence market conditions;
forecasting market conditions and choosing forecasting methods.

At the first stage, markets are classified according to different indicators depending on the goals of market research and features are highlighted, since a specific type of market will further determine the methods of its research and the range of indicators for analysis.

The second stage is focused on assessing the growth dynamics of the structural elements of the market situation and involves the use of certain methods of market analysis.

It is proposed to consider demand, supply and price as the structural elements of the market situation, as follows from the definition of the market. The following methods are used in marketing market analysis:

economic system-wide analysis;
economic and statistical;
economics and mathematics.

Indicators of economic conditions

The emergence of the concept of “market conditions” in its modern understanding is associated with the differentiation of areas of research into economic conditions at different levels. Considering this issue at the macroeconomic level, researchers used it as a general economic concept, which included taking into account indicators on the scale of the world economy, and the concept of the business cycle was identified with the market situation.

The world market situation is characterized by volumetric, effective, structural indicators; indicators of the intensity of international trade, as well as indicators of the efficiency of foreign economic transactions. In turn, the microeconomic approach provides for the separation of certain groups of indicators, united mainly along industry lines, which characterized a separate market.

Within the framework of this approach, fluctuations in the situation of individual trading platforms were individual, and the system of cycles characterized the general economic situation.
An analysis of modern literary sources indicates the ambiguity of existing approaches to the interpretation of the essence of the concept of “market conditions”. In the process of studying approaches to determining the essence of this concept, it was revealed that most scientists characterize it as a combination of a certain number of factors (conditions, indicators, elements) that reflect the situation on the market. At the same time, some authors also emphasize the existence of a relationship between certain factors, since the magnitude of the impact of a certain factor on the final situation may change depending on its interaction with others.

When determining the list of indicators that are part of the indicators of economic marketing, one group of scientists is limited to signs characterizing the relationship between supply and demand, while others also include indicators of competition and prices or determine factors of market conditions in the context of their spheres of origin (economic, political, social, etc.) . P.).

Market analysis methods

The main methods of market analysis are comparison, visual and graphical methods, and balance sheet. The most widely used method in marketing analysis is comparison, in which indicators of market conditions are compared with those that are predicted. This method is the most common, as it makes it possible to compare phenomena and evaluate the changes occurring in them. The result of the comparison is the calculation of relative and absolute deviations (dynamics) of indicators for the reporting and base periods. It is the method of comparisons that makes it possible to timely determine the degree of risk for subsequent planning and development of an enterprise development strategy.

This method is advisable to use when segmenting the market, studying the market by type of goods, their range, quality, etc. In market analysis, independent importance is given to visual and graphic methods, which are used to visually reflect the results of marketing research. In general, these methods come down to constructing graphs and tables; sometimes pie, pie, strip, and figure charts are used instead. These tools depict the relationships between individual indicators in a bright and attractive form and reveal their structure for visual comparison.

Economic and mathematical methods of marketing market analysis include general mathematical methods for calculating economic indicators and mathematical modeling. Among general educational mathematical methods, methods of risk assessment, commercial and financial calculations for market analysis are of great importance. One of the important methods of marketing research is mathematical modeling. A mathematical model is a system of mathematical formulas, irregularities or equations that adequately describes the phenomena and processes inherent in a particular object.

It is also considered advisable to use economic and statistical methods in marketing market research, with the help of which structural indicators for processing and studying time series are determined. These include correlation-regression, analysis of time series, index method, analysis of market dynamics, method of average values, analysis of time fluctuations, as well as a group of heuristic methods. In these rather difficult times, more and more specialists are turning to the correlation-regression option, because with its help it is possible to identify the influence of various factors, for example, on the market share of a company, product costs, business risks, and the like.

Market indicators

It is also worth noting that analysis and forecasting are significantly complicated by the fact that the indicators that reflect the state of the market are somewhat conditional and relative when determining the strength of action of individual market-forming factors. When using individual data, one must keep in mind that some of it directly reflects changes in market conditions.

Other indicators can be used as indirect evidence of processes or trends that are emerging. This may concern data on competition in the market under study, its trends, level of monopolization, etc. This opinion is shared by many scientists, although they have different approaches to the formation of a set of indicators. Thus, according to F. Piskoppel, market conditions for forecasting and analysis should have indicators of production (industry, construction, agriculture, transport), commodity and money circulation, and consumption. It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that in addition to general data, there should also be separate data that will take into account the peculiarities of the development of certain industries.

S. V. Skibinsky argues that the situation on the commodity market can be characterized using indicators such as the monetary income of the population, the structure of their expenses, the volume of purchases of goods in physical and value terms, the price ratio, the structure and volume of inventory, etc.

F. M. Levshin defines study indicators “as tools for quantitative assessment of changes occurring in markets under the influence of various factors.” Here the author identifies levels of market conditions, consisting of six groups of indicators: foreign trade; domestic trade turnover; industrial production; dynamics of investments in fixed capital; order; monetary sphere.

D.I. Kostyukhin has a different opinion regarding the indicators. He identifies indicators of the development and state of sectors of material production, commodity exchange and consumption, and the monetary sphere. So, in particular, V. R. Kucherenko and V. A. Karpov identify the following groups of volumetric economic indicators that characterize market conditions: market supply; market demand; market proportionality; dynamics of market development; business activity; commercial risk. The proposed system includes the main most used data that can be used in market analysis, and is necessary to determine turning points and prospects for the development of the market, that is, to make a forecast for changes in market conditions. The information base must meet certain requirements:

have an organized database structure;
update the database as often as necessary;
have a well-functioning analytical marketing system.

The structure of the analytical system should include a model bank and a statistical bank.

Market Research

At the present time, market research is impossible without the use of specialized workstations and computers, because this work is associated with large amounts of information, which often have a rather complex internal structure. In addition, analyzing market conditions requires labor-intensive calculations and graphical constructions. At the present time, quite effective software developments are available and exist for use, allowing you to quickly process and use market information for making management decisions. The most common and used program is Microsoft Excel. Its main advantage is its complexity and combination of a large number of calculation functions, and the possibility of graphical constructions.

The use of PCs in market research is possible under the following conditions:

creation of an information database;
statistical processing of market information;
graphical interpretation of trends in market dynamics;
building models of time series of market indicators;
building a market wave and forecasting the development of trends.

It is the Microsoft Excel program that is universal for conducting market research. In addition, to create databases for processing market information, you can use software products such as Microsoft Access, Foxpro and others.

Monitoring factors

Another stage in which market conditions are assessed is monitoring the factors influencing it. Since this analysis identified structural elements, monitoring factors will determine their influence on these elements. Factors influencing the market environment can be divided into macro- and microfactors.

Macro factors include national income, net national income, production indicators for groups of industries, indicators of commodity turnover (domestic and external), consumption indicators, etc. Micro factors include indicators reflecting the processes of economic development of individual markets - indicators of production and consumption of products on the market , introduction of new production facilities, etc.

Forecasting market conditions

The final stage of analysis of market research is the selection of methods, development and forecasting. The goal is to determine probabilistic estimates of the state of marketing in the future. Forecasting is considered to be the resulting part of research. It is this that gives businesses the opportunity to prepare in advance for changes that may occur in the market, as well as take into account their positive impact and negative consequences, and, if possible, intervene in its development and control it. As for methodological approaches, scientists have approached the problems of market forecasting in different ways. For example, F. G. Piskoppel believed that the foundation of forecasting the market situation is analysis. He formulated the requirements and described the indicators, briefly outlining the methodology.

According to D.I. Kostyukhin, large and medium-sized firms are interested in knowing the prospects for the development of the industry market, so it involves systematic long-term and short-term analysis. At the present stage in the study of market conditions, the separation of forecasting as an independent structural unit of market research is noticeable. Thus, V. A. Karpov and V. R. Kucherenko included forecasting in the title of their work, so studying market conditions emphasizes the importance of forecasting.

Forecasting methods

The choice of forecasting method is important. According to experts, there are more than 150 of them in the economic literature, although in reality 15-20 are used. The entire set of methods according to the degree of their formalization can be classified into two groups:

Heuristic (subjective, intuitive, expert) - the essence of which is that the approaches used to form a forecast are not laid out explicitly and are inseparable from a person.
Formalized (economic-mathematical, objective) - in which approaches to forecasting are clearly stated and can be executed by other people, who will then certainly come to carry out the same forecast.

Heuristic methods include the commission method, the Delphi method, the interview method, the scenario method, etc.

Formalized (economic and mathematical) methods include extrapolation and economic modeling. Extrapolation methods are based on the hypothesis of preserving existing established relationships and their extension to the forecast time, and economic modeling methods involve the creation of models of the interaction of various factors that determine market conditions. Economic and mathematical models that can be used in marketing market analysis include deterministic models, as well as stochastic ones, which allow the existence of the influence of random actions on the data being studied.

Conclusion

Marketing market analysis makes it possible to ensure successful business activities. It consists of collecting information, systematizing it, and recording all information relating to the market for a particular product. Market conditions make it possible to determine real and potential consumers, their purchasing power, as well as the main trends and patterns of the market. The result of the analysis is the development of a market forecast.

The study of commodity market conditions includes an analysis and forecast of the state of the market for a specific product and involves studying the industry of production and consumption, the products in question, their relationships, as well as the infrastructure support of the market being studied.

When starting to study the market conditions of a product, one should first of all identify the activity of certain factors, for which it is necessary to establish the moment at which the market is located. For these purposes, the monographic method is used, i.e., economic and statistical indicators of the nature and characteristics of a given specific period and forecasts of its development published in statistical and periodical publications.

Based on the analysis of the period and taking into account available estimates, it is possible to determine at the time of the study and in the near future the degree of influence on the formation of the goods market of such leading factors as the scale and intensity of production renewal, the size and level of demand for goods.

Then it is necessary to move on to the consideration of constantly operating factors, which are often decisive for the formation of the situation. These include: government regulation, monetary policy, structural changes in the economy. The influence of short-term exposure factors should also be analyzed. The latter, although not so active, nevertheless in a number of cases have a significant impact on the size of demand and the dynamics of goods receipts. The system of indicators must correctly characterize the directions and rates of development of the production process, not be affected by accidents and quickly reflect the changes taking place.

The slow response of the indicator to any changes makes it difficult to use as a basis for analyzing or forecasting the market situation.

Analysis of the state of the national economy or an individual product market is necessary in order to correctly make a forecast and predict its changes.

In relation to the situation on the product market, the following definition can be given: a product market forecast is an objective, probabilistic in nature judgment about the dynamics of the most important characteristics of the product market and their alternatives, subject to the fulfillment of the formulated hypotheses, in order to develop marketing recommendations for the behavior of a company in the market. There are several types of forecasting: market forecasting (3-6 months), short-term (1-2 years), medium-term (3-5 years), long-term (5-10 years), long-term (more than 10 years). The market forecast diagram is presented in Appendix 1.

The commodity market forecast requires:

reliability, scientific validity, consistency, taking into account factors that may have an impact in the future;

reproducibility and evidence, i.e. obtaining the same result when re-processing data, including based on other methods, excluding subjectivity;

the alternative nature of the forecast with a clear formulation of all the hypotheses and premises underlying it;

verifiability of the forecast, i.e. the presence of a reliable methodology for assessing the reliability and accuracy of the forecast for possible adjustments;

clear and concise language that is understandable to those directly making decisions and does not give rise to conflicting interpretations;

planned nature of the forecast: the forecast must be timely and serve management purposes.

The forecast of market conditions for a product assumes possible changes in the structure and volume of consumption, which are compared with estimates of the development of production of the product. Such a comparison allows us to identify changes in the relationship between supply and demand and determine the likely sales volume.

Timely and correct use of the forecast allows you to sell goods at more reasonable prices, use resources in a more profitable direction and take prompt measures to expand (reduce) production in the event of an expected significant improvement (deterioration) of the situation.

The main task of a comprehensive study of the market, which makes it possible to determine its general characteristics, includes the analysis and assessment of products planned for production in terms of the parameters of their demand. The volume of market demand at any given time is a certain fraction of the market capacity.

The difference between the market capacity and the volume of market demand determines the prospects of the product market or services market.

The amount of demand and market capacity at any given time is a function of several factors: market structure, price elasticity of demand, distribution channels, consumption growth rates, competition among suppliers of similar goods. This multifunctional dependence makes demand assessment a rather complex process.

Determining demand and market size includes an assessment of the magnitude and structure of current actual demand and a prospective assessment of demand in the market. Current demand can be thought of as the total quantity of a particular product purchased at a particular price in a particular market during a particular period. The first step in determining the current actual demand is to determine it for a year or several previous years.

Since market demand is multifunctional in nature, to forecast it it is necessary, based on the results of market analysis, to identify the key factors that determine its dynamics. Then you need to assess the degree of their influence on demand and make a forecast of the evolution of factors in the future. After completing these procedures, a demand forecast is carried out based on some method.

It is also necessary to clearly understand what needs this product satisfies in a particular market, in what areas and how it will be used by the buyer. The most common methods for determining future needs are normative, statistical-extrapolation and the method of expert assessments. It is advisable to combine these methods, which will reduce the error compared to using each method separately.

The normative method is most appropriate for industries where the range of materials and components used is relatively small and is calculated in physical terms. To determine future needs using the normative method, the formula is used:

П t = l i j b i ljt D j ljt (K i ljt + 1),

where: i - consumer industry;

l - type of material (component);

j - type of product;

b i ljt - consumption standard for the lth type of material (component) by the jth product;

D j ljt - volume of product of the j-th type, consuming the l-th type of material (component);

K i ljt - losses of the lth type of material (component) used in the jth type of product.

In consumer industries, where there has already been a certain tendency for the mass use of materials (and in large volumes and a varied assortment), the statistical extrapolation method is most convenient. The period during which extrapolation of demand is possible is within 10-15 years. Practice shows that the expected forecast error does not exceed 15%, which is quite acceptable for predictive calculations.

The increase in need consists of the increase in the initial need and the need for replacement. Next, the intragroup demand structure is calculated (by individual types, brands), based on the total volume of demand based on the data used at the analysis stage. The calculation is carried out in the following sequence:

the share of individual types of goods in the total sales volume and the share of individual brands in the sales volume of goods of this type are determined;

the structure of the possible total sales volume by type and brand is calculated as the ratio of the possible sales volume of a given type of product to the total possible sales volume; by brand - the absolute amount of possible full sales for a given brand is divided by the volume of possible full sales by type, which includes this brand;

the structure of the expected sale is determined. In addition to the normative method used in forecasting market capacity, extrapolation methods can also be used. The most accurate extrapolation methods include Jenkins-Box time series models.

Numerical indicators for a product are usually determined on the basis of statistical data on the consumption of the product for the period under study. If statistics do not provide such data, they are calculated by compiling a consumption balance based on data on production, imports, exports and carry-over stocks of a given product. This indicator is called “market capacity”.

Market capacity can be calculated based on industrial and foreign trade statistics as follows:

V = Q + Z + I - E,

where: V - market capacity;

Q - production of goods;

I - import of goods;

E - export of goods.

In order to assess the dynamics of possible changes in market capacity in the future, it is necessary to trace trends in the development of production and demand. The actual developing capacity of the market may not reflect the potential capacity of the market, which is determined by personal and social needs and reflects the volume of sales of goods adequate to them. In marketing, market potential refers to the market's ability to buy and/or consume a product or service. This is a quantitative measure characterizing the absolute or relative number of units of product that can be purchased or consumed by a particular market segment over a certain period.

Demand analysis should be carried out on the basis of a system of indicators (Figure 1).

In the process of analyzing market conditions, a special place is given to the study of consumer requirements and preferences. The system of indicators required for this is as follows.

General consumer requirements for the product, among which are the following:

novelty and technical level of products;

quality workmanship, uninterrupted operation;

the level of after-sales technical support and the nature of the services provided;

the ratio of the price of the product and the beneficial effect of its use.

It is important to know the specific consumer requirements for the range and quality of the product, its appearance, packaging and labeling methods, and trademark.

Specific requirements include:

product range and quality, assessment of its appearance, packaging and labeling methods, use of a trademark;

geographical and climatic conditions of use;

current technical standards;

consumer habits and tastes;

reliability and ease of use of the product;

defect-free, durable.

Analysis of consumer preferences involves the study of consumer actions in relation to the evaluation and selection of a product, taking into account the nature of the product and its purpose. Product differentiation occurs primarily through the individualization of a specific brand of product.

An important component of the market research process is supply analysis.

Changing the offer is the basis for implementing the most important principle of marketing. The essence of this principle is that the company must produce such types of products that would best correspond to the nature and specifics of consumer demand.

A number of indicators are used to assess supply (Figure 2)

The market share that a company can theoretically have at any stage of the life cycle of the product it produces is determined by the formula:

where: B a is the share (by value) of product A in satisfying demand (i.e., in total sales of all goods of this kind);

K a - competitiveness of product A;

M - supply/demand ratio;

b a - an indicator of the prestige of the company-seller (producer) of the product;

b i is an indicator of the prestige of a competing company.

The actual market share is determined by the ratio of the actual volume of production, sales of a given company to the total volume of production, sales in a specific market. From the annual reports of companies and periodicals, information is also obtained about the plans and programs of individual companies for R&D costs, for the expansion of production capacity and modernization of production, as well as the expected cost of costs and release of products to the market.

When analyzing the supply of a specific product, it is important to study the state and development trends of the corresponding global product market. Firms are continuously conducting research to identify the prospects of scientific and technical progress; much attention is paid to expected discoveries that could entail fundamental changes in the field of production and sales on the global commodity market and in the field of international trade in general.

Analysis of product supply involves systematizing the search using the following sources of information: analytical review of special books and magazines; study of competitors' advertising; conversation with clients and suppliers; discussions with department heads; study and analysis of proposals from company employees; reviewing published market research reports; conversations with consultants.

In addition to this method of processing secondary information, there are other research methods. One of them is functional analysis. However, we must keep in mind a very specific product that can be functionally described.

The morphological method involves choosing the main problem, which is divided into system elements.

The brainstorming method does not set any boundaries; it is an intuitive and creative method. An atmosphere of relaxation is created, each participant can use the ideas of their partners. Since the main thing in this method is the quantity of ideas, and not their quality, there should be no criticism. A large number of ideas should make it possible to find an acceptable solution.

The synectics method (developed by W. J. Gordon) focuses on the ways creative workers think. In groups of 2 to 6 people, one is the coordinator. The group work process begins with an expert presenting the problem. The problem is then precisely formulated and analyzed. Any spontaneous reactions are recorded. Next, they try to consider the problem from a different point of view, using analogies. An attempt is made to describe in detail direct analogies and, through the projection of the description, to approach the problem that requires a solution. After this, you can formulate a first approach to solving the problem. You can also use the statistical game method to select a supply strategy.

Based on a study of supply and demand, consumer preferences, a forecast of market development opportunities is made (Figure 3).

The determining factors in this regard are: assessment of the possibilities for developing demand for products in a specific market; determining prospects for changing market capacity; determination of possibilities for the development of production, consumption, and price levels.

To study (analysis and forecast) market conditions, a wide range of indicators is used, which can be classified into the following main groups.

Production figures:

industrial production indices;

volume and dynamics of product output for the industry as a whole;

rate of product renewal;

where: P is the share (share) of fundamentally new developments in the total supply of the product group under study, presented on a specific market for the period under review;

R is the number of new developments released to the market during the period under study within the product group under consideration;

W is the number of items in the product group under consideration.

where T rbi is the rate of product renewal;

R i - the number of fundamental additions and (or) changes in the basic sample for the current period;

R оi - the number of fundamental additions and (or) changes in the basic sample for the period taken as the basic one.

volume and dynamics of capital investments;

the volume of production capacities and the degree of their utilization in individual industries;

Internal trade turnover indicators:

the volume of services provided by intermediary organizations;

Q ysi = Q B ysi k ysi ,

where: Q усi - volume of services of the i-th type in the base period;

Q B ysi - volume of services of the i-th nature;

k усi , is the coefficient of change in demand for services of the i-th type.

inventory of goods.

Foreign trade indicators:

physical and monetary volume of foreign trade turnover;

indices of physical and monetary volume of foreign trade turnover;

physical and monetary volume of exports and imports;

geographical distribution of exports, imports;

trade balance;

commodity structure of exports and imports;

the country's share in world exports and imports;

share of exports and imports in production and consumption of products.

Indicators of price level dynamics:

wholesale price index;

retail price index.

Financial indicators:

issue of securities;

stock prices of enterprises dominating in the industry;

refinancing rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation;

inflation rate;

money supply in circulation;

exchange rates;

bank deposits;

Forecasting market conditions is the final stage of comprehensive market research, the main results of which firms use when planning their activities. Of particular interest are forecast (or probabilistic) estimates of the volume of material production, volume of demand and price level.

Typically, market forecasts are used to determine tactical actions for the short term (no more than 1 year), since it is within these time limits that the nature of changes in the commodity market can be predicted quite accurately.

In some cases, firms need to develop long-term (5-15 years) and medium-term (1-5 years) forecasts of product markets when they need to develop strategic plans for the long term. But in this case, the assessments are most often averaged and indicate only the general directions of development of the relevant markets.

When making a market forecast, it is important to keep in mind that:

It is impossible to obtain an absolutely accurate forecast. Therefore, we must strive to minimize the uncertainty that is inherent in each forecast;

it is necessary to develop a range of alternative options for the development of market conditions, depending on the impact of their or other market-forming factors;

the development of forecasts must be carried out continuously and on a daily basis.

In world practice, several forecasting methods have been developed, among which the most commonly used are extrapolation, expert assessments, mathematical modeling, and graphical analysis.

Extrapolation method. It consists in transferring phenomena that took place in the market in the past to the forecast period. This is a fairly simple method, but not entirely reliable. It can be used only in cases where there is confidence that the same factors will operate in the forecast period as in the previous period, and the nature of the impact of these factors will remain unchanged.

Method of expert assessments. It is based on the involvement of a group of experts or special bodies for a serious economic analysis of the main factors influencing the market situation, and based on this analysis, developing their own forecasts. The reliability of such forecasting depends on the choice of experts.

They must have a significant amount of knowledge, experience and possess the necessary amount of information in the relevant field of activity. Here it is appropriate to recall an aphorism popular among forecasters: “An expert is a specialist who has previously made many mistakes.”

Naturally, the method of expert assessments in itself is not exhaustive, and the reliability of market forecasting is, as a rule, supplemented by other methods.

Methods of mathematical modeling. These methods determine the functional dependencies between individual indicators based on data available for a number of previous years on the situation in commodity markets and express them in the form of a system of equations.

Graphical analysis. For short-term forecasting, graphical analysis is used, sometimes called chartism. It allows you to evaluate the dynamics of individual economic indicators to identify similar points in their behavior in order to determine the nature of their changes in the future.

This method is mainly used in forecasting quotes on commodity and stock exchanges. Adherents of this method proceed from the fact that studying stock price charts can provide a fairly reliable forecast, since the price accumulates manifestations of all the main market-shaping factors.

This forecasting method is acceptable when assessing the conditions of markets such as oil, non-ferrous metals, food raw materials, etc.

Sections

Analysis and forecast of market conditions. Assessment of investment attractiveness and investment needs of Sintez LLC

10.1. Analysis and forecast of market conditions

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